Notes: Basic problems, modified to own clustering of the county of birth, are shown inside the parentheses

The regressions tend to be dummy parameters for census seasons, battle, years, county of beginning, and cohort of birth, and you may region of birth fashion. Study was aggregated to say from delivery ? season off beginning ? census year cell mode in the 1st column, but at private level into the IV regressions. Comprehend the notes so you’re able to Table step one .

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The newest IV rates signify the new causal ramifications of very early teen matrimony and you may dropout reputation for the upcoming impoverishment was large. This new standard rates signify marrying more youthful increases the chance an excellent young bride to be can be inside poverty afterwards in daily life by the up to 30 payment things. Losing out-of highschool possess a comparatively faster, yet still generous, 11 payment area impact on coming impoverishment. Such results are strong to the level of aggregation, LIML estimate, adjustments for migration, and you can an operating mode method. Anyone-top OLS quotes to possess early teen relationship was short, if you find yourself aggregated OLS quotes produce a quotation that’s of one’s same magnitude due to the fact IV rates.

To raised understand why the fresh new IV and you will aggregated OLS estimates disagree plenty regarding private-level OLS prices, I today mention new role out of dimension error. Inside the census data, many years in the beginning marriage are determined on the said day away from basic marriage and you may go out from beginning (times and you will 12 months). Usually just one individual fills throughout the census means for the entire family. This really is gonna exacerbate dimension mistake because people finishing the census may not have particular facts about other home members’ dates away from delivery and very first wedding. During the 1970 and you can 1980, the brand new census setting will teach visitors to “provide your very best guess” whenever either ones times are “unknown.” 19

As the fraction regarding early teen marriages is really so quick, any mismeasurement out-of day from birth or date out-of marriage-both variables regularly construct years in the beginning marriage-will produce a very higher downward prejudice when you look at the the fresh OLS estimate of the early teen ount out of dimensions error, the wrongly classified adolescent brides can be outnumber the actual teen brides, resulting in ample attenuation bias.

To raised understand the incidence from measurement mistake in the advertised times, look at the 1975 Federal Fertility Survey (NFS). It was the brand new fifth when you look at the some surveys conducted every 5 years to examine ily considered. The latest interesting element of the survey for the 1975 is that the experts decided to reinterview a selected test of women about 1970 questionnaire. New reinterview shot comes with dos,355 white women in the earliest marriage ceremonies who had been continuously partnered, whoever ages at the matrimony was below twenty five years, and you may whoever husbands got recently been hitched only once. Both the 1975 and you will 1970 surveys ask date from delivery and big date regarding basic relationship, with one another groups of responses are submitted about 1975 take to. So because of it subset of females, I can https://datingmentor.org/escort/santa-rosa/ assess a lesser sure with the misreports because of the evaluating the newest exact same female’s responses over a beneficial four-season big date panorama.

Misreporting essentially declines just like the a beneficial woman’s advertised ount from error for the such almost every other groups is modest in contrast

Table 8 tabulates how many times brand new answers on 1975 survey don’t fulfill the responses regarding the 1970 questionnaire. For the entire test, dates away from beginning don’t consent cuatro% of time, and you will schedules off relationships don’t agree several% of time. The result is one a good woman’s age within relationships counted when you look at the decades does not line-up to possess eleven% of the observations on the sample. Mismatch pricing also are said for the Dining table 8 having groupings oriented to your a great woman’s reported marriage years regarding 1970 survey. For these marrying from the otherwise beneath the ages of 15 for the the brand new 1970 questionnaire, 8% off delivery dates and thirty-five% away from wedding dates do not line-up around the survey ages. For this group, 39% of one’s suggested relationship decades differ along the studies. The amount of dimensions mistake in the census does feel even big while the 1975 NFS sampled just women who got never separated along with girls respond to questions about on their own.